Replies to post #26599 on Wyckoff volume benchmarking / market profile bt a

[Nirvana]

With a close above 3960 today, certainly possible to test/overshoot the 20 sma at 3990-4000 tomorrow. Closing below/above it will be key.

Agree on somewhat muted reaction to PPI in the past 3 months that has only caused 1-2% moves (9/14, 10/12 & 11/15) whereas the CPI has moved markets 2-4%.

[gdl]

But you dismissed the most important reading? The PPI is INFLATION. if it comes out tame you have a continued bull run for now. if it is bad the market (should) react immediately. if it doesn't than you have a great TELL like the start of a pandemic that no one thought was a problem. Even after we had an exact example of human nature from 100 years ago. Maybe you thought we mutated since then?

BUT you are right in one respect, the street might not immediately react even though they should. Seems i have that problem always getting in trouble out thinking the market. Always getting in TOO quickly.

Like I said a tame number and we are in holiday cheer. the setup i there for both scenarios and i would be surprised if we don't react in that fashion. i have been wrong many times before and perhaps this is another example of my hubris.

But to be clear a high PPI at these already absurdly high numbers MUST be passed on to the consumer unless they are altruistic or feel we can't handle the costs. not likely.

*** I would be very surprised if we get a very good or very bad number and at 8:31 the street ignores it. Just my 2 cents. ***

I placed a straddle for this. I do ramble on. Good luck!

[jxyzobrien]

bears have done close to 0 in a week of selling
the market is still running long term on FED QE. So even if the market sells on
news tomorrow they will buy it back.
fed qe hanky panky and expiration next week. santa was only sleeping

when you see the perma bears rise and pound their chests
who just know the next crash is soon again
get punished again and again

https://schrts.co/jReNhIYN

[jxyzobrien]

tom obrien take is we are failing at fib .38 from highs
so i understand why he is short term bearish

but everyone is short
put call is again at extreme highs
when everyone knows the market will fall its too easy a short

https://schrts.co/MNSKFCde