Yes if the data was as good as the PR headline, the SP would be around $30.
I agree with your timeline If Anavex gets a trial up by summer/fall 2023, and take 1 year for recruitment (optimistic if they don't add many ex-AU sites) and use 48 weeks then the data could be out by early 2026 best case. This is what happens when you begin with a crappy 2a (32 patients), data mine it to death rather than have a proper 200 patient phase 2 to actually figure out the right dose and endpoints. We went from being 2 years ahead of SAVA to 2 years behind.