Replies to post #540641 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[beartrap12]

$440. Sounds right, Tryn. May take a year or two or three. I think it could be that fast. Think about where Apple or Google or Amazon started and how many splits they’ve had. That could be us. In fact, if we stay an entity, we may go well over $1,000 in, say, ten years. Just a guess.

[no2koolaid]

Not sure of the variable projections offered by others, but I did an analysis on NWBO DCVax using Keytruda as a surrogate because NWBO has no revenues. So, real numbers, real timeframe for revenues. In keeping with the concept of DCF and using Keytruda's revenues as a surrogate - with similar revenues NWBOs share price today would be $187.11.

To avoid any mistaken impressions, DCF is a valuation method used to estimate the value of an investment today, based on projections of future cash flows (how much money it will generate in the future). As I said, it is both art and science. For some this can be difficult to grasp, while the science is easy (the algorithm), the art is more difficult because, when identifying the independent variables, the question is based on what future cash flow? Again NWBO has none and that is why I used Keytruda as a surrogate. It is as apples to apples as it gets, just different kinds of apples.

With the prospects of DCVax as an agnostic drug treatment for other forms of cancer - from a business perspective - the value of the company and the share price, based on such projected revenues, would be a multiple of what I posed.

[Chiugray]

How can price be $440?
1. A Volkswagen short squeeze scenario?
RA approval + a lawsuit discloses >80% of NWBO OS shares are naked short + that >20% OS are held by SH who will not sell + rumors of multiple bidders to buy company = creates a "have to cover" but structurally "impossible to cover". As such other hedge funds come to feed off of the naked shorts by buying options and shares, pushing the price up. But this may last for only a couple of days.

2. Go Big scenario? Murcidencel becomes a base layer, first treatment vaccine for all solid tumor cancers. It may take a couple of years to achieve though.