The planning won’t take nearly as long this time around. That’s the benefit of precision medicine. They know exactly what to look for now. But even if it does take longer, if Blarcamesine gets approved for Rett within the next 12-18 months it’ll take the sting out of a delayed Alzheimer’s NDA.
Yesterday was an obvious day to sell for many reasons:
1. Overall the market was down several hundred points
2. Tax loss selling season has begun now that we are past Thanksgiving
3. Time is running out for the risk adverse to exit AVXL
4. Fund managers are mitigating risk, especially those sitting on profits. Portfolio managers do not get fired for selling a winning stock early, but they will lose their jobs for holding a dog of a stock for too long. If they can sell for 25% profit, they’ll get their bonus this year. Why risk clients’ money on an unknown outcome?
5. It’s possible that Anavex was selling shares to raise money. We won’t know for a while but if that’s the case, it’s more likely they’ll have another trial. But I didn’t get the impression that Dr. Missling needs an immediate cash infusion.
6. Didn’t a competing drug just announce yesterday that it has safety issues?
All of these are reasons for the big drop. If news had leaked my guess is that we’d see a drop much greater than 25%. We’ll see. I expect a few more days of panic selling. It’s human nature.
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