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12/03/22 9:39 AM
NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 7998 and is trading up about 6.34% for the year from last year's settlement of 7521. Presently, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 6 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 8055, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2022. Clearly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 8420 and support forming below at 7965. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 7th at 9374, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of September 26th. We have been generally trading down for the past 3 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of 21.48%.
Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of November 7th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 9364 made back during the week of October 10th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of August 29th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This decline has been rather important penetrating the previous low formed at 7625 yet the market closed above it just cleaning out the stops. This does not yet imply a shift in trend. We need to close below the previous low just technically to raise that possibility. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 3 weeks and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2020 while the last high formed on 2021. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 12368 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during June. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 13050 back during March. Critical support still underlies this market at 6230 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
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