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NY Crude Oil Futures (CL) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 26, 2022

NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 7628 and is trading up about 1.42% for the year from last year's settlement of 7521. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will deline further on a monthly level. At the moment, this market has been rising for this month going into November reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 7527 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 8087.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during September. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2022. Distinctly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 7985.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 7th at 9374, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of September 26th. We have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of 19.70% in a stark panic type decline.

Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of November 7th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 9364 made back during the week of October 10th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of August 29th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This decline has been rather important penetrating the previous low formed at 7625 yet the market closed above it just cleaning out the stops. This does not yet imply a shift in trend. We need to close below the previous low just technically to raise that possibility. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2020 while the last high formed on 2021. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of June for three months. Since that low made in September, the market has rallied for 1 month. However, we are trading below last month's low of 8087, warning that a month-end closing beneath this level will signal a reversal of trend to the downside is starting to unfold. Meanwhile, the past month has witnessed a rally of 13% percent. A month-end closing below 8087 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 9364 to maintain a near-term upward rally.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 12368 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during June. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 13050 back during March. Critical support still underlies this market at 6230 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.

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