Replies to post #384726 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[powerwalker]

You've expressed that opinion previously and now only 220 hours until we find out/

[boi568]

For MMSE, a p value of .01 is achieved with n = 150 at about a 15 percent reduction in decline -- worse than what Lecanemab did. The p value of .05 represented an 11 percent reduction in decline. That is a very narrow, and losing, window to be predicting (assuming similar results for ADAS-COG). Given prior cognitive results, this outcome seems unlikely to me.

People like to analogize to other AD results, or more generally to the modest results expected from most clinical trials. However, this trial isn't intended to build incrementally on prior efforts; it's a first-in-class trial -- not an AD trial, but a first-in-class CNS trial. It builds upon the PDD Phase 2 more than anything else. The trial hasn't outright failed. And its chances of an outright success are much higher than a lot of posters here think.

[Steady_T]

Actually it is the strength of the results that drives the P value. More patients in the arm can make a weaker result still <p.05.