Replies to post #383986 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Investor2014]

Agree.

Not sensible idea to conclude WGT on the basis of a CTAD LB slot and MacFarlane having to travel so far. That is naive and inexperienced biotech investor thinking.

The results are likely not a fail, more like great signals and P3 Precision Medicine trial material.

Nothing wrong with that out of P2 trial that can be a P3 if the results are so good that agencies agree the trial is pivotal.

Not long before we know the actual outcome.

[Hoskuld]

Correct: anything can happen. We bet with our shares what we think the most likely outcome is (I think it will be good.)

[boi568]

It's been explained here several times how the pre-CTAD Cortexyme circumstances differed from ours, so I won't repeat that again.

As for publication, the key is that Anavex at the point of announcing its late breaking presentation -- without any further information available to us -- said flat out their results will be published. While it is true that peer-reviewed journals may publish on less than fully successful trials, that is not a certainty; what is a certainty is publication when there has been a successful trial in such a major indication as Alzheimer's. I think Anavex had to have had some assurance from a journal at this very early stage in order to make that promise. I'll also note the same publication promise was recently made by Eisai/Biogen when releasing their Phase 3 Lecanemab results.