Replies to post #46265 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[ls7550]

1965 bad case start year



Not so bad. When you have your inflation adjusted money returned via 30 year 3.33% SWR then you have 100% of that money at risk at day one, but have had half of it returned after 15 years, and all of it returned after 30 years. Broadly Averages 50% of your money at risk. If in addition to that return of your money, you also have a 'terminal bonus' of near 70% of the inflation adjusted amount on top, then in total 1.7 times your inflation adjusted money back, against a average 50% of your money at risk, a 3.4x factor, which over 30 years = 3.4^(1/30)=1.042 ... or 4.2% annualized real gain on your average money at risk. In the worst historic case since 1872 (calendar yearly granularity).

Clive

[ls7550]

1929, in particular a September start month was conceptually a worse start year for AIM, particularly if you were using a 4% SWR. Basically burned through cash quickly to leave you all-in with further and pretty deep declines yet to come. AIM pretty much remained at all-in thereafter for the full 30 year term. However even though all of cash had been deployed within a year or so, that meant you had around 40% more shares than a investor who had lumped 100% into shares from the start, as many might have been tempted to do around that time given how even shoe-shine boys were talking-stocks and many were borrowing as much as they could to buy stocks ... in the lead up to the Wall Street Crash.

That AIM, that was near-as all-stock (but with 40% more shares) went on to do OK, basically supplemented dividends by selling some shares to pay the SWR and carried a retiree through 30 years OK, even at a 4% SWR rate. Only had around 16% of the inflation adjusted start date amount available at the end of 30 years, but still succeeded in a 30 year 4% SWR objective.

The 3.33% SWR was considerable more successful, got back into AIM trading/some-cash in later years and went on to end 30 years with having more than the inflation adjusted start date amount still available.

Of course AIM hadn't been invented back then, at the start of 1929 Robert Lichello was only 2 and a quarter years old (kids like to count part years as for a 1 year old a year is a lifetime :)

Clive