Wednesday, November 16, 2022 8:57:21 PM
1965 bad case start year
Not so bad. When you have your inflation adjusted money returned via 30 year 3.33% SWR then you have 100% of that money at risk at day one, but have had half of it returned after 15 years, and all of it returned after 30 years. Broadly Averages 50% of your money at risk. If in addition to that return of your money, you also have a 'terminal bonus' of near 70% of the inflation adjusted amount on top, then in total 1.7 times your inflation adjusted money back, against a average 50% of your money at risk, a 3.4x factor, which over 30 years = 3.4^(1/30)=1.042 ... or 4.2% annualized real gain on your average money at risk. In the worst historic case since 1872 (calendar yearly granularity).
Clive
Not so bad. When you have your inflation adjusted money returned via 30 year 3.33% SWR then you have 100% of that money at risk at day one, but have had half of it returned after 15 years, and all of it returned after 30 years. Broadly Averages 50% of your money at risk. If in addition to that return of your money, you also have a 'terminal bonus' of near 70% of the inflation adjusted amount on top, then in total 1.7 times your inflation adjusted money back, against a average 50% of your money at risk, a 3.4x factor, which over 30 years = 3.4^(1/30)=1.042 ... or 4.2% annualized real gain on your average money at risk. In the worst historic case since 1872 (calendar yearly granularity).
Clive
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