I like that option trade idea. And good job on your pricing. The buyers of your puts are either betting on bad data or they are hedging a long position.
That indeed is a large premium, but it reflects the reality that a failed trial is expected by the MMs to result in a stock price well below $6.70, which seems very likely under that scenario. On the flip side of that trade, it is going to be very expensive for some folks to hedge their long positions unless AVXL holds off on a PR and the stock price runs up considerably during the month of November.