I have a system in place for a long time now. Option play is usually a losing proposition due to huge premiums and time decay. I developed a system that tries to see patterns that repeat and play off them. My long term assumption is real bad, SPX below 1,000. My intermediate term to SPX 2500.
I find it ludicrous that on the political front we have excepted fascism with no demonstrations and in fact cheers. Name the offense this last government has done and all boxes would be checked. YET we actually VOTE IN rioters, seditionists and pretend the actions and words from Trump are normal.
IF we can endure such drastic shock to our political system with a shrug I can easily see that mass denial is also affecting the stock market.
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Market action: Analyst just came out today on Bloomberg and valued the SPX at a range of 3,000 to 3,400 as likely fair value today. 3712 i line in sand and this market will fight like hell to hold the line. It should break today and start the watershed event. I made good money on the pandemic drop when everyone turned to their technical system and declared the market ABSORBED he news with no affect. At end of last year i POUNDED home the current scenario. I can't claim to have found a method to pinpoint the exact reversals. In fact I have lost the last 3 PUTS missing the drops on timing.
TODAY: I see no ability to rally thru the whole day. It will struggle to stay above 3712. I am still convinced a deep fast drop id here. Based on the 10/11 week pattern for lows, the 14 trading day exact drop last 2 waves down and seasonality. These factors boost my assumption and odds. When you bet homeruns you do so knowing the odds are way against you. My play is an adrenalin one. I never endorse my play on others. Requires acceptance of total loss on bet each time.
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