The spin-off can be structured several different basic ways. I personally think that Todos will raise less than a million a percent. $1 million a percent is valuing it at almost 100 times current revenue. That isn’t going to happen. Also, I think any new decent CEO is going to want a few hundred thousand shares. And they should get it. It incentives them to perform.
I don’t think that Todos is going to directly make any money from the spin-off other than manufacturing. You can’t launch a startup and then pillage it. The meager amount that initially comes in is absolutely needed to attract talent and to sell the product. Marketing, advertising, promotions, demos, freebies, etc. Value will be unlocked when it is sold or outstanding shares reacquired.
The reason you aren’t getting a straight answer is because no one truly knows. Not even GC. When he starts shopping around. Investors might dictate terms to him that he thinks are acceptable. But it might not be his original game plan.
What you do is you make educated assumptions based on your trust of management, what management has been saying, filings, the law, history, and industry norms. That will get you like 74% probability. Enough to invest on, not roulette odds.
My financial advisor has me in these big funds managed by some really brilliant guys. My upside is limited to 15% a year and my downside is capped at 20%. So they cushion the fall. But reap the rewards. He seems to consistently make me 8-12% annually. That is safe.
I will say I strongly disagree that this is not a high risk investment. A small biotech startup? I think that is the definition of risk. Suppose GC gets into a car accident. Suppose Covid is cured tomorrow. Suppose big pharma sues the snot out of Todos. Suppose Dr, Arnat has a mental break down. Suppose the FDA doesn’t let testing go beyond lesion probing. Suppose management goes for it and miss times the RS? I have like 20 more but I think you get the point.
I can do 20 what ifs on the positives too. But I think it is irresponsible and naive to say this is an obvious and safe bet. Someone could read that and move $20k in that they can’t afford to lose. Every dime I have in Todos can be lost without effecting my quality of life. Any money invested here should be money you can afford to lose. Todos is by no means a sure thing. If I hit it big. I will buy the boat I always wanted. If I lose it all. We will take one less vacation next year. Todos could have an SP of .001 next year. Be about the same. Or be $10. With all 3 you will be able to look back and say what transpired easily explains the current state.
Don’t get caught in the FOMO trap and think smart experienced people haven’t looked in on TOMDF. They did. They saw risk. And they passed. They saw that there are other investments which where safer and had a higher probability of success.
And really a better return. So they chose not to tie up their capital.
I believe in the company. I understand that they have a long hard road ahead of them fraught with peril. We’ll see.
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