Replies to post #376507 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[peeved]

Because biogen drug is already better than approved drug with no need for phase 3

Avxl has no guarantee of approval however likely or however good the data…phase 3 may be needed

Also wall street will not allow runaway trains to let retail win…ever

[crescentmotor]

$40 for a very positive phase 2b trial would really suck

It's a very conservative number ($3 billion market cap) that contemplates the possibility of one or more large Phase III trials taking another few years to earn FDA approval. That number also reflects major players hoping to acquire/own AVXL putting a ceiling on the stock price.

If AVXL reports out stellar results thought to warrant an upcoming FDA approval without further trials, then I can see a $10 billion valuation with a $15 billion valuation coming with FDA approval assuming no partnership/buyout scenarios.

My jaded outlook says on big pharma gets the pot of gold $20 billion valuation--lol!!!.

The truth of the matter is that a successful trial will probably result in a buyout of AVXL before full valuation can occur. Another distinct possibility is a partnership that will dilute valuation.

I mean if it is powered like a P3 why wouldn't the cap go up to $20B like Biogen?

We've had a lot of discussion on the board about the power of the trial. In my mind, it is powered more like a Phase 2b. That's the reason I think there is a good possibility for the requirement of larger confirmatory trials. If that winds up being the case, valuation in the $15/$20 billion range is going to have to wait and assumes no buyout.