Replies to post #376096 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[$Money Bags$]

It's not an assumption in any sense. Maybe let's figure out what happens if...

[Hoskuld]

Agree that Rett seems like a lock. Would surprise me if AD and PD results are not both on the continuum from "very good" to "outstandingly good", but Rett alone probably justifies a $3b market cap.

[raja48185]

So let’s assume AD results don’t show statistically significant and clinically meaningful changes. I believe blarcamesine will nonetheless be approved for Rett. I don’t need the money right now and the tax bill if I sold at current price would be tens of thousands closer to six figures…

Why sell even with run up to $20?

In three to five, this will be at least $20 with Rett approval and concomitant revenues. Anyone else in my boat and using similar strategy?

If you assume that AD results don't show statistically significant and clinically meaningful changes, then you should first and foremost worry about the price drop from current levels ( in terms of %). Is it going to be < 50% or more than 50%. That Rett has a very good chance of getting approved sometime next year won't stop the price from dropping.

What strategy is good ?

*Hold and take a hit - making an assumption that it is temporary - banking on Rett for recovery and move to 20.

* Sell it all, especially if there is an extended delay in publishing AD data with the hope to buy more with the same capital (assuming that results will be subpar)

* Sell a % before the AD data read out, recover some capital and wait for the 'coin toss' outcome for the rest of the shares.(assuming that results may go either way)