InvestorsHub Logo

Foosfund

10/01/22 1:37 PM

#375930 RE: plexrec #375902

Plex. the Barrons brief article was a follow up to last week's feature about ALZ. I wrote to Barrons about Anavex but they did not respond. Looks like we have to get their attention with results. Here is this week's blurb:

Until this past week, there seemed to be no answers to the Alzheimer’s puzzle. The leading theory of the disease, that it was caused by a buildup of beta amyloid plaque in the brain, had been disproved by the failure of earlier drugs. But, in a surprise on Tuesday evening, Biogen and partner Eisai released positive results from a new therapy they were testing, lecanemab.

This bombshell sent shares of Biogen BIIB +1.03% up 35% and Eisai ESALY –7.41% 32% on the week. Eisai said the drug slowed cognitive decline in early-stage Alzheimer’s patients by 27% after 18 months, a better result than that achieved by Biogen’s approved, if controversial, Alzheimer’s drug, Aduhelm. “This appears to be basically a near-best-case scenario and should lead to full FDA approval,” Jefferies’ Michael Yee wrote; other analysts remained cautious.

For Biogen, a failure would have revived talk of breaking up the biotech, while positive results may lead to a megablockbuster drug—and make it easier to hire a new CEO to replace exiting Michel Vounatsos. Mizuho analyst Salim Syed wrote that he is modeling $8 billion in peak annual worldwide lecanemab sales. Lecanemab profits will be split 50/50 between Biogen and Eisai.

The data also stir hope that drugs from Eli Lilly LLY –2.02% and Roche Holding RHHBY –1.19% in trials will also show efficacy. UBS’ Michael Leuchten wrote that Roche’s Alzheimer’s drug, gantenerumab, could see sales of $500 million to $10.5 billion, depending on results expected in the fourth quarter. Data on Lilly’s donanemab come in 2023’s first half. Roche shares were up 4.57% for the week; Lilly’s gained 3.28%.