Nobody is going to pay that valuation for a drug that may have that potential in 5 years+. Direct hasn't even started P3 trials.
Y'all are talking about a near term buyout. You're not getting the full value of direct with a near term buyout, sorry. Now, if you're talking about being bought out in 5 years? Then okay, I'll give you the potential to get closer to those $20B valuations. But not in 2022.
I dont think NW remains independent long enough to retain these kind of numbers. If NW had $150-300 M in the bank, my thoughts and price projections would be very,very different. But the facts that I know right now, is that they are pretty much operating on fumes. Hence my BO target between $7-12 billion. I am not "reassessing" anything until the facts change, not just because I want speculation to be true.