Replies to post #384756 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[CaptBeer]

So, here’s my quandary going into ER: Do I cut back (30-50%) of my shares before ER anticipating the pullback, or let it ride hoping for a surprise?

[HDGabor]

z-

2022 Q1 results stimulated the fear of an Amarin bankruptcy by the market...Q2 results will show that fear to be unfounded...and the stock will tick up due better results in Q2 than in Q1, stimulating the expectation of still better results during the year and beyond.

I do not say that the -$100M cash-flow / fear of an Amarin bankruptcy did not have any effect on the pps, but the main, primary reason was the decline in Net Revenue vs the same quarter in 2021 ( -$47.4M / - 33.5%).

Meanwhile Co.s mention Q vs previous Q it is the least important (if have any ... due to seasonality). The two - usual - "measurement" are actual vs market expectation and quarter vs same quarter in the prev. year.

I "expect":

1.) AMRN will beat market expectation (Net Revenue and EPS). $113.8M vs $85.8M (+$28M / +33%) ... -0.01/2* vs. -0.06
As it will be the first info, will be the first "headline", pop-up on "every" screen ... the pps will rise.
* Dunno, as did not made real, exact calculation for this line

2.) After the market will realize that the beat was due to low expectation and see the Q2 2022 vs Q2 2021 - $113.8M vs $153.8M (-$40M / -35%) ... the pps will fall

It will be effected by the market mood on Wednesday also.

Best,
G