Impressed again with the way energy stocks are holding up in light of pretty darn bad news. Feeling more confident that we have bottomed. But that's just a guess and could easily be wrong. If we're headed for a massive, serious recession, it's worth remembering that in 2008, oil went down from $140 to $40 in about six months, and natgas went from $13.35 to under $3. They didn't ring a bell at the top then either, so who knows.
But in retrospect, it all kind of makes sense to me. (That doesn't mean any of what I'm about to say is correct, but just this is what makes sense to me.) Govts around the globe in a complete act of stupidity abandoned free markets and individual rights and did something never tried before: shut everything down (as if it can just be restarted with the flip of a switch), lock people in their houses, and started printing up money (inflation) to give to people. Oil and gas stocks started moving up, knowing that big price increases and earnings were coming. This went on for a while. Then a little over a month ago, the markets in oil and gas stocks started moving down in anticipation of a recession/slowdown/depression, take your pick. The market is forward looking and was saying that Interest rate increases and demand destruction will ultimately kick in at some point.
But again because markets are forward-looking, they know that prices of energy and nearly all commodities have come down a lot now, so the next CPI number will likely not be as bad, and thus interest rates increases may be nearing an end, and a certain amount of additional demand comes back from all prices declining. So it seems like the market action of energy stocks is saying we are bottoming. But my guess would be that we'll be range-bound for a while. If prices start rocketing back up, then we run into the same problems, so I think we sort of bounce around for awhile.
If the govt doesn't shut down LNG facilities, it seems like natgas has the high-priced European markets to sell to, so hopefully natgas could decline less than oil. But even there, Germany in particular is now returning to burning wood and coal because of stupid govt allegiance to a nonsense green agenda, so there will be some demand destruction there as well as the natgas prices are insane. Germany (who is in its mess for trying to rely on wind and solar) might have a Depression-level event, who knows.
Hopefully not as bad in the US, but anything's possible, as we've just witnessed.
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