Replies to post #490303 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[biosectinvestor]

I disagree on the notion that this is an incredibly expensive product for which we have no clue of the potential cost and that they are “sharing” profit with an outside firm. Also, Car-T is much more complex, expensive to make and still hand made. I think they have way more difficulties for now meeting potential demand, there are multiple approved similar products for the same narrow sliver of the oncology market with many more in the running, potentially with much better production technologies and yet they still were bought out for 10Billion.

I think you’re overstating the costs, dependencies and issues AHP, and the potential confusion for a much better market cap. I was in those Car-T companies, they were in the 4-6 Billion market cap even when one of them was halted for killing patients, still nowhere near approval, yet to figure out how to deal with it. I think their business is far less attractive than this one, where 2-3 years of vaccine is made all at once, there are limited side effects, the pricing per year is quite reasonable for a life extending, good quality of life cancer treatment and they have what looks like scalable, automated manufacturing likely coming on line in the bit too distant future, regardless of what our bulletin board experts might claim. Even so, with the hand made option, they can still make quite a bit, and the cost is set already by contract and is likely to decline, over time, on a per year basis, on scale up.

I don’t think it is unreasonable to expect a much higher market cap. The issues are macroeconomic. This burst to $2.51 long before TLD was likely in the picture, based on the buyout of the Flaskworks technology at a very reasonable price.

I think the market is doing its thing right now, many stocks are down, but too much “ambiguity” of ambiguous nature should not be thrown onto the normal ambiguities. The factory does belong to NWBO, the license to manufacture is fine where it is, but can be easily transferred to a buyer on purchase, as part of the existing contracts in this kind of an arrangement.

[skitahoe]

AHP,

Clearly we can't be specific as to what we'll earn from each batch of vaccine we make, but everyone believe the full course of treatment will be in somewhere in six figures. Once we have the FlaskWorks unit approved only a few hours of time by people who should be well paid, the point is, it still won't cost a great deal in labor. The units themselves were estimated to cost tens of thousands by others here, I suspect they're about right if mass produced. The disposable cassettes are primarily glass and plastic, specially handled and treated, but probably not a thousand each if mass produced. Certainly the facilities they're housed in or the cryogenic capability adds expense, but probably not more than a few thousand on a per batch basis.

I'm only suggesting that even if each batch of vaccine came to $25K, which I suspect is high, the profit would still be substantial with a six figure price. Many drugs that cost as much or more than DCVax-L may only cost dollars to make, but tens or hundreds of millions have been spent on the equipment making them, and of course all these drugs, including DCVax-L have cost hundreds of millions or more to develop, in that way there are similarities, as well as differences. The point is that with approval there will be plenty of money to be made with DCVax-L just as there is with any major drug. DCVax-L in GBM should become part of the SOC and it won't take long to become a blockbuster in GBM alone, it will be a blockbuster many time over if other solid cancers have benefits. I don't care if personalized products cost more to make, when they're blockbusters they'll be very profitable.

Gary

[kabunushi]

The market is more than capable of understanding the annual patient numbers for nGBM and rGBM, assigning a projected market penetration curve to a new SOC, and making rough estimates from various inputs as to likely selling price and gross margins. Those estimates go up or down over time, but for sure a company like NWBO would get a radical upwards valuation if it were trading at .70 when any single RA approval gets announced (assuming no radical revaluation has occurred in the meantime, which seems unlikely)..

Unless a buyout happens, the stock price certainly can lag what longs know to be a fair value range at any point on the road to large financial success. To get really reasonable prices for the stock longs might have to wait but please don't try to tell us that there aren't going to be a lot of new buyers until not only RA but not even until the company is profitable. That's basically nuts - tiny cap biotech doesn't work that way.