Regardless of weather you are right or not, it is a good perspective to have. Certainly mitigates disappointment.
Wish I had your trading skills. No idea how to make any money off of this downtrend. Just keeps going lower and lower.
I do think you are right that if we don't see anything big with the NDA we drop and recover soon after, but even with all the convincing points mentioned in your message, it's hard for me to think that we aren't going to fly soon and watch dumped shares turn into fewer more expensive shares in my account.
I guess that's what make me a bad trader. Easy to see the speculative potential, difficult to move on logic that I don't want to believe.
Regardless of what happens in the near future, clearly a low risk long hold here imo.
good luck and thanks for the perspective.