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hoffmann6383

06/14/22 9:25 AM

#486501 RE: ATLnsider #486500

thanks atlnsider
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biosectinvestor

06/14/22 9:35 AM

#486504 RE: ATLnsider #486500

Manufacturing on special production lines pre-approval and not at scale is always more costly. That was always the drawback of this kind of manufacturing.

There are likely very few to no economies of scale at the current level of production.
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biosectinvestor

06/14/22 9:52 AM

#486513 RE: ATLnsider #486500

It is initially £150,000 for the first year of doses and should the patient want or be able to have a 2nd year of doses, it is the next £50,000 for 2 additional doses.

Again, this is for the unscaled, specials program with basically no economies of scale.

£200,000 and that is before current inflationary costs but I presume most of the input right now are labor and already sunk costs. Hard to say about shipping and other costs. And they may be able to segment costs more with the regulator to suggest what costs are for production and what costs are for delivery and maintenance of the vaccine for the patient. Some of those things may matter for the purposes of the regulator understanding the reasonableness of the costs.

I think they will be able to have ongoing discussions with the regulator on their costs and those may not be the costs that will be presented for a scaled up operation.

I think people thinking they know how long certain things will take or that some things are not approvable from these details and from bulletin board chatter and ordinary and stray interpretations of a comment here or there in Murthy’s presentation are unreliable guides. And I mean guides not to be relied upon. I expect LP has a much better handle on this and is not expecting to delay things for what is basically being suggested is years.

Again, presuming the specials pricing is the same necessarily as a scaled up factory’s pricing is probably not reliable. And an all in pricing also may not be exactly what is evaluated for reasonableness by NICE. Lastly, inflation is going to change a lot of things including what is reasonable to NICE.
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Chiugray

06/14/22 12:54 PM

#486604 RE: ATLnsider #486500

ATLnsider, Thanks! I also think if doses are available, subject to storage life, they will be used, so probably 3 years.
Year 1 Induction + Boosters: BP 150K = USD $180K
Year 2 Maintenance: BP 50K = USD $60K
Year 3 Maintenance: BP 50K = USD $60K
Total BP 200K = USD $300K

From a strictly revenue to calculating a company valuation perspective, since revenue crosses years, capturing this supports using a higher Mkt Cap to Revenue Ratio.