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Replies to post #4312 on Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
06/18/22 10:43 AM
This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened higher and closed lower. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 186150. Therefore, this market closed below the opening print while also closing down from the previous closing yet it was weak going into the close.
One indicator typical technicians follow is the 200 day moving average which the market has just moved back above 1 day ago. That number rested today at 184288. Historically, this indicator is more broad-term in what it reveals. It can flip back to negative after a few days.
Clearly, this market has broken under the former broader cyclical support which now resides above the market at 184711 rendering it vulnerable to a further decline at this time. The market just crossed that cyclical support during the previous session.
During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 177135 settling at 184990. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 179424 which we closed above at this time. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 182450. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 183610 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 178930 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.
Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 179424
Previous... 177135
Tomorrow... 182450
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 188250. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2020, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2015. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 183760 and overhead resistance forming above at 185880. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 13th at 188250, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of May 16th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 188250 to 180610. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 13th reaching 188250 failed to exceed the previous high of 200300 made back during the week of April 18th. That rally amounted to only four weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 183630. Additional support is to be found at 179720. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2021. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 175200 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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