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Replies to post #74661 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)
06/11/22 10:34 AM
S&P 500 Cash Index opened below the previous low and closed beneath it as well warning of a bearish posture right now. The market closing today at 390086 is immediately trading down about 18% for the year from last year's settlement of 476618. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will deline further on a monthly level.
As of now, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 5 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 413215, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in June is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Mon. Apr. 10, 2023. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 1974 moving into 2022. Clearly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 394596 and support forming below at 387658. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of May 16th at 381032, which was down 7 weeks from the high made back during the week of March 28th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 407385. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2018 while the last high formed on 2021. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
This market is trading well beneath that high of January which was 481862 by more than 10 percent. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
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