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Replies to post #74707 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)
06/18/22 10:37 AM
The S&P 500 Cash Index closing today at 367484 is immediately trading down about 22% for the year from last year's settlement of 476618. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will deline further on a monthly level. Immediately, this market has been declining for 5 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's low of 381032 on a closing basis, then it will remain weak for now. This price action here in June is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 363687 intraday and remains trading beneath that level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Mon. Apr. 10, 2023. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 1974 moving into 2022. Noticeably, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 373430.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 28th at 463730, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 21st. We have been generally trading down for the past 11 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of 21.57%.
Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of March 28th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 459531 made back during the week of January 31st. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of January 3rd suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This decline has been rather important penetrating the previous low formed at 411465 and closed beneath it settling at 367484 warning we may have a shift in trend unfolding. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2018 while the last high formed on 2021. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
This market is trading well beneath that high of January which was 481862 by more than 10 percent. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
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