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Replies to post #2860 on Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)
05/21/22 10:22 AM
The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 216740 is immediately trading down about 7.18% for the year from last year's settlement of 233520. Up to this moment in time, this market has been declining for 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's low of 227100 on a closing basis, then it will remain weak for now. This price action here in May is warning that we may have at least a temporary high in place beginning perhaps a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level if we see lower prices next month or close lower. Otherwise, there remains the potential for a one-month Knee-Jerk reaction low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 204200 intraday and remains trading beneath that level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 1 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 219250 and support forming below at 215200. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of May 9th at 204200, which was down 9 weeks from the high made back during the week of March 7th. This was a key week for at least a temporary low. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of May 9th, which has been a move of .0741%.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2019 while the last high formed on 2021. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
This market is trading well beneath that high of March which was 274950 by more than 10 percent. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
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