Replies to post #472946 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[hope4patients]

I appreciate your opinion and responses. I know that they are well informed. What would be your best guess with respect to timing re: UK approval?

[CaptainObvious]

I've been saying this for a long time. Even said it about Cognate, but Advent makes even more sense

[biosectinvestor]

Makes far more sense, though once they have Flaskworks running, again, the issue is personnel, and keeping it separate creates benefits until they are either fully commercially operating or they no longer wish to do manufacturing at arms length. But buying it for much more than basically the contracts is not helpful either. Basically all it does is take the people inside of the company and take all those obligations and cash flow issues and put them directly in the NWBO balance sheet. Keeping it a separate business works if Advent can get other business locally, and I believe they have an obligation to do so. NWBO should not be a contract manufacturer for local other companies, so again, keeping it off the balance sheet, they got various benefits including financing and potentially sharing costs with other businesses. But beyond that, absorbing it really has no benefit unless it is for them, as effectively key employees, to participate in a buyout more directly.

I think that, if you see them absorbed first, it’s a sign of a buyout. There is no other real or practical or good business reason to do it otherwise.

The other theories about NWBO failing and becoming a CDMO under Advent are nonsense and convoluted insanity. Not your idea. But your point is possible in the context I see it, but also not absolutely necessary otherwise and buying the company of the CEO, really not useful otherwise given the other obligations. NWBO has enough on its plate than to be doing manufacturing and marketing such services to other businesses. That’s not a core business. Good for cross subsidies and for meeting the obligations that financed Sawston, but otherwise not helpful.

[biosectinvestor]

I don't think they need to be in the business of a CDMO any time soon, but if it pulls in the risks of loss of IP (i.e. the acquisition of Flaskworks changed everything), and if basically it's primarily just a way to eliminate the claims of conflict, though I think that is short argument that is baloney, then maybe. But I really don't think they need to dilute us more to buy a company that has a reasonable contractual relationship and is terminable. I could see it as being a way to let the employees participate at Advent directly in the success of the company in a better way, however, I do not think Advent is worth a billion or anything near that. They do not have a plant of their own, they don't have a thriving business doing this work. Their work is completely derivative of NWBO's business.

They have been invaluable partners, no doubt about that, so I'd like to see the employees properly incorporated and validated, so my concern is not that. But buying the company has other implications. Honestly, just buying the contracts and having them work for NWBO makes more sense to me, and then just simply saying they are making the manufacturing NWBO's job, they no longer need a CDMO.

On the other hand, they will be doing the work with local companies and researchers. I really think it would be a distraction for that to be internal to NWBO. So maintaining the entity could make sense in that sense, but it also I think detracts from NWBO to have its capital going to making another business. But that business may not be sustaining for Advent, despite the local regional authorities hope that it would be worthwhile, so maybe that is the reason, so that NWBO can carry that additional burden which perhaps Advent has not the resources to do.

It's also possible that a regulator might prefer it be in-house. I can see using the acquisition to give them a boost in terms of the employees more equity ownership in NWBO, but buying it out otherwise, the equity is owned by LP. And as I said, it would feed a LT short narrative.

Whatever the case, I think their explanation of the merger, if they are going to do it that way, should be very carefully rationalized. Otherwise they just feed the short narrative that has been argued for too long.