Replies to post #472337 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[exwannabe]

That is not the right way to correct the curves. You must cut out the first 3 months of the 2018 curve not the last 3 months of the TLD data curve to correct the curves. The first 3 months of the 2018 curve is when no one was dying as you can see because the curve stays around 100% for 3 months. This pushes the whole curve to the right and makes it look like everyone is living longer. When you cut out the first 3 months then the survival at 36 months drops to around 20% for the 2018 data.

There are 2 2018 data sets, so be careful. In mid 2018 the JTM paper was released withe 25% 3 year OS post surgery. I assume you backed that by 3 months to get 20%. But at SNO 2018 LL updated it to 28% 3 year OS post surgery.

To get an apples-apples comparison you can either go post surgery or post randomization for both. You took one path, I took the other.

For your methodology, post randomization, the SNO dataset will come in at about 24-25% for 3y OS. The only K/M was a really fuzzy screenshot, but the slope is fairly clear and will be the same as the JTM paper.

And that compares to 20.2% in the NYAS data.