Replies to post #470822 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[FeMike]

Yup, yesterday was a mistake. Market swung and missed.

I am firmly in the camp that it was just a perfect storm for the shorts.

First, LL cancelling was a big enough event to cast doubt. The resulting SP drop in the morning really tested investor resolve.

Then, you had the coordinated attack right when the presentation was released. This started a chain reaction. You have investors that just watched the price, assumed the results were bad, and immediately dumped without seeing anything. Then, you have investors that tried to go through the slides quickly but, unfortunately, you're still watching the price. So when scanning the slides, what is the first thing you see with regards to the trial? Boom, original primary failed miserably. They're not reading slides 9 and 10 which describe why PFS is invalid, they're just hunting for results. Literally the first results of the trial in the presentation say:

PFS was not significantly different between the DCVax-L arm and
placebo arm: p=0.47
• mPFS was 6.2 months (95% CI: 5.7-7.4 months) for DCVax-L patients;
mPFS was 7.6 months (95% CI: 5.6-10.9 months) for placebo patients

Now, we all know there is a reason for this, but when the retail market is trying to make a snap decision to avoid losses as much as possible, they read this and bail immediately. And once that trigger is pulled, they're out, and there's no putting the toothpaste back in the tube. The stock plummeted, people were reacting instead of thinking, and everything snowballed. No amount of good data after that point mattered because the decisions were already incorrectly made. I strongly feel slide 11 was a big reason we crashed yesterday. They should have put the actual results first, then discussed the changed primary endpoint.

Definitely feel like, now that people have digested this data, we start climbing again.