Replies to post #41690 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

All the doubters keep pointing to Alexion's failure as the reason this will fail.

I would suggest that you are missing the point:

It is a good thing they kept trying to produce cancer drugs. If they would have stopped because prior ones failed people would just give up and die.

Yes, but they would have equally failed if no one had looked at the past failures (wrong kinds of patients, wrong endpoints, etc) and learned from them.

BTW - The more I look at the Alexion data the more it looks like they did too much datamining (i.e. it is not clear that the drug ever worked as well as the PRIMO-CABG would have indicated.). But OTOH Lipitor looks like it may work as well as MC-1 or better.

[daved]

Re mcu forecast rw. You're correct, of course.

We should have a drug on the market in early 2009 not 2010 if all goes to plan. I've mentioned that in early posts but screwed it up accidentally in this one.

Thanks,

Dave