Biotech Values

[drbio45]

Reward target for MCU market size & forecast.

I'll throw out targets for all to throw stones at and discount down to the present market value.

Assumptions: Headline endpoint data will be available in April 2009 or B4. MCU files in June 09 or B4. It's an approved drug Jan 2010 or B4. By 2011 the CABG market is 425,000 per year. The selling price per patient is $700. In 2010 market penetration is 15% and sales are 45 mil. In 2011 we are at 40% penetration and 120 mil revs. Revs peak in 2012 at 180 mil and 61%. After all why wouldn't a surgeon use it? Because the late stage pipeline is for variations and combinations of an approved drug we value shares it at 7 X current revenues or 1.260 bil market cap. The current market cap is 127 mil.

Voila. I've created a 10 bagger. That was easy.

Dave

The company stated on the last call that they think that enrollment will be completed in November 07. that means data will be available about april or may 08 not 09

All the doubters keep pointing to Alexion's failure as the reason this will fail. It is a different drug with a different MOA. It is a good thing they kept trying to produce cancer drugs. If they would have stopped because prior ones failed people would just give up and die