Replies to post #463433 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[hoffmann6383]

those sound like reasonable timelines imo

[CherryTree1]

My hope would be that once DCVAX-L is approved for GBM and recognized by the public at large as a cure for 30-50% of the patients . . . lets say within 2 years and then volume production ramp up to meet the strong demand for the new SOC takes another year so that within 3 years NWBO which lets guess by then they are treating about 30% of the 250,000 of new GBM cased each year. That would mean if the treatment is $200,000 that NWBO will have revenues of $15 billion annually. Let say conservatively that it is only $5 billion a year. With that much money coming in I think they would be able to get L and Direct approved for many other cancers within 5 years from now because they will have plenty of money and they will also be able to rely on demonstrating the immune system is responding like it did with L for GBM so they won't have to wait and additional 5 or more years for long tail survival to prove it works.

[norisknorewards]

i think this query is a bit premature. Will be much more fun on or around 2 months from now.

[NRF]

Still waiting for TLD and near term catalysts, but if these are a given I go back to a couple investing notions that are worth taking to heart:

-Let your winners ride
-Buy good companies, hold forever

I'd think NWBO is a worthwhile 5 year hold, and will likely outpace many other picks since the majority of the "heavy lifting" is behind us. I'd like to continue to be here for the development of Direct and the hopefully successful commercialization of it, but I will likely take some measurable amount off the table after -L yields its fruits.

Of course it will be smart to reevaluate as we continue to hit milestones, but I would think NWBO may be a worthwhile stock to hold for a decade or more, but I would like to see further transparency post TLD, which I would expect they have the intention of doing.

However I have no issue with less communication if the company is thriving and is easily blowing past expectations, and it is able to establish a solid track record here forward.

A SaaS stock I'm fond of that has a ~30% 15 year annual return had been good about a quarterly update, but the board decided to move away from the CEO doing so do to not wanting their proprietary sources and methods to be entirely stolen by copycat artists. I'm a fan of this as they've already established they have a unique and special ability to bring value for the investor. The CEO is one of these types that ought to rank with the Buffett's of the world. They now communicate on a less frequent basis, but update the longs on the most important changes they're making, and prove they are thoughtful and highly knowledgeable of their particular niche.

I hope LP can provide the same value for her investors.

[Chiugray]

You ask where investors think where we'd be in 5, 10, and 20 years. Made me think of this. Name this tune if you can, a before my time piece:

I've long since retired, my son's moved away
I called him up just the other day
I said, "I'd like to see you if you don't mind"
He said, "I'd love to, Dad, if I can find the time
You see my new job's a hassle and the kids have the flu
But it's sure nice talking to you, Dad
It's been sure nice talking to you.

[snoopycomic]

In your best case scenario: 50% of current LOngs will be dead. In subsequent scenarios , 40 , 30 ,10 % Longs will die natural death. This may sound dark, but pick your choice. I have been long for 7 long years & holding 150K shares. I don’t want to hold on for another 20 years. Let’s be realistic & collect a decent return in our lifetime. I say BO & be done with it.