Replies to post #24474 on Cycle Trading

[No-Quarter]

As I understand it, until the 10yr yield trajectory turns negative, any uptick in equities or 'The Big Three' indexes is likely a head fake.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST10Y&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07718519916

Objective no.1: Don’t crash the bond market
As mentioned above, keeping bond yields from moving sharply higher is critical to the success of QT.

Above quote from here -
https://www.schroders.com/en/us/insights/multi-asset/how-frightening-is-quantitative-tightening/


I also understand as the FED completes its transition from Quantitative Easing to Quantitative Tightening, the general trend is to exit tech stocks, also called 'The Metacurse'. Cathy Wood and Ark are hurting big time. The sectors to watch will be undervalued growth equities and natural resources.

Here, a bit of a challenge emerges - with everyone knowing that the Fed's aggressive tightening means that a crisis is now only a matter of when not if, the question is what catalysts to look for to decide if the crisis has officially begun. Well, according to Hartnett, one place to look at is the ongoing (and soon to get much worse) implosion in tech stocks in general, and social media in particular, something the BofA strategist calls "the Metacurse."

Warning that in a world of extreme inflation the rates shock is only just beginning (indeed, as Friday's dismal action showed, "75bps is the new 25bps") Hartnett sees an acceleration in the secular flip from QE-winners to QT-winners which is already well-underway - see natural resources vs biotech...

Above quote from here -
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/im-so-bearish-and-even-im-miserable-one-banks-clients-crack-yet-real-selling-only-just

GLTY