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santafe2

04/08/22 9:41 PM

#25660 RE: wow_happens28 #25658

It's helpful to keep a fairly close check on the price of oil. To say it's been volatile over the last two years would be an understatement. That volatility has led to volatile and rising gasoline prices.

Your boots-on-the-ground experience is understandable. I didn't really notice the price of gas until it crossed $4 a gallon and I had the WTF experience of paying over $100 to fill up my truck. If it's not doubled here, it's certainly up 75-80%.

I think the difference in your assessment is timeframe. We are all frogs in a frying pan when it comes to rising prices. A little here, a little there and we don't really notice until it crosses some threshold that forces recognition.

Pre-pandemic WTC oil was over $60 a gallon. Six months later you had to pay someone to take your oil in transit. A year ago oil was back to $60ish a barrel. In early March it peaked at ~$122 a barrel. Today it's $96.

I don't think your opinion is contrary, we are still paying for peak $122 a barrel oil at the pump but the price of gas should continue to decline as the economy slows and we work through issues related to Russian energy delivery.

As for your straddles question, I've traded options for over two decades and options work best when volatility is decreasing. You're setting bounds at which you're being paid to give or take shares. If they expire, you're in the insurance business.