Ukraine grain production and exports are going to be extremely reduced in 2022 - devastatingly low. That is already a guaranteed ~OUTTcome given we are in March already. Ukrainian farmers cannot and will not be able to access the fuel, fertilizer, implements and spare parts, seeds, and FINANCING for this Spring planting. They cannot order up and get deliveries of the supplies they need in time. It is already too late for the 2022 production year.
And it looks possible that 2023 season will be doomed also if this persists into autumn and prevents winter wheat planting in Ukraine.
The winners will be farmers ~OUTTside the Ukraine and Russia. Food prices are going to Uranus. As are petroleum prices. You can elect to stop driving, butt good luck giving up eating.