Replies to post #25356 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[procqw2]

I do lurk on this board and did note the INTC post. I am really not sure about Taiwan. Many compare Russia to China in their geopolitical moves but I don't think the comparison is close to 1:1. PRC might be playing a longer game with Taiwan.

I own no semiconductor stocks at the moment. Last one was AMD and I may be at risk of a fallacy trap that nothing will show the same growth (and risk/reward) in the near future. I am hard pressed to find bargains around. I own some small cap EMS (PCB manufacturing) stocks as speculative but these are growth bets for other reasons.

[santafe2]

As I see this, a geopolitical call option first assumes the two companies are in the same business. At this point, this appears to be only an aspirational case.

Were it to come about that INTC transforms into a successful outsourcing chip manufacturer, one would then have to accept the premise that China will, at some point in the near future, take control of Taiwan through military action. That could prove to be Pyrrhic victory.

Taiwan is not Hong Kong and the PRC has enough problems in HK. There has been no plan for reunification since the delusional ROC planned to retake China in the 1950s. It's not unambiguous but Taiwan is still an independent country, not property leased by another entity and Taiwan has been a democracy for 35 years. Economically and culturally it makes no sense.

[biolover]

I like intc bought on Friday . Will buy more if tomorrow is carnage

[DewDiligence]

Thanks, procqw2 and santafe2, for weighing_in_on INTC.

[semi_infinite]

IMO ASML et al (frontend equipment) are the real options for Taiwan invasion. Speaking of invasion, look at the effect on LUKOY. That's shock and awe in a different dimension.