Not sure what their outstanding shares were when they were at $200 per share, but currently it is at 103.82 million shares outstanding. So $200 per share is approximately a 20.08 Billion market cap. I do not think they were actually making all that much income at the time to justify that market cap and I clearly think Optune is an inferior platform, but nonetheless, market cap is the appropriate benchmark, not dollars per share.
It’s like comparing fractions with different denominators while ignoring the denominators and looking only at the numerator. You can’t do it. It’s like saying 5/10 is much larger than 1/2 because 5 is bigger than 1.
Dollars per share, or share price is a measure of what a given fraction of the company is worth, not an absolute value. The more shares, the smaller the sliver of ownership, just like a pie with more slices of pie means that each slice is less pie. The market cap is the totality of the pie's value.
Think in terms of dollars bought at what market cap, and then what the later market cap is, adjusted for dilution.
NWBO is also on the OTC, so you have a greater abundance of day traders and small dollar traders who notoriously do not hold and where the meme traders can’t tread.
I do believe we could see some decent market cap numbers, especially on a buyout, or speculation on a buyout, or even the speculative kind of bubble some seem to presume, but is uncertain. But if you do the comparable benchmarks of similar companies, $100
Or $200 per share given the relevant market cap that would represent, seems a high reach for now. Might be later, you never know also about speculation and market insanity as we sometimes see with new and early technologies.
But reasoned valuations are going to compare relevant market caps, not the share prices. In the case you reference, NVCR has many fewer shares outstanding, so it goes to reason that the amount of dollars chasing the shares can chase the price into that price range you referenced and it can still be “reasonable”. $20 to $30 billion market cap would be a fantastic price early on, though most likely to come with a buyout. What later, is hard to say. That depends on execution and ability to get the product to many different cancers quickly as well as revenues and geographic approvals. Larger potential, and immediately reachable markets can increase the market cap considerably just by guessing at a percentage of those additional markets for DCVax.
Comparably as well, I don’t know how many markets NVCR was approved to sell in. NWBO could be approved in many markets for Glioblastoma relatively quickly if the data proves to be what many of us expect. That could be a considerably bigger market than some calculate here and also if doctors start prescribing DCVax for other cancers routinely, the demand for the treatment could be quite large. But we'll have to see how it all comes to pass to see, most likely. Though, as I've said, one can hope that the market speculation and expectations get ahead of us, as they do sometimes, as for TSLA and similar stocks. But benchmarking is the most rational way to come up with some measures. Then strategic value, we all know about the combination opportunities and patent. Those things could, in fact, increase the value, especially if there is an opportunity to see a bidding war.
All IMHO.
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