Replies to post #442069 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[pqr]

Soj thanks a particularly interesting chart thanks for posting.

[Chiugray]

Very important point. Thanks for saying it.

I think at the core is the question, is Northwest Biotherapeutics really "the one"? All retail dream of the same thing, to find the 1 in 1,000 opportunities, a stock under $1, that will go up 20X or 30X, based on due diligence, not gambling, and be fortunate enough to have invested a substantial sum.

Also at the core, is the concept we all understand: diversification keeps a rich man rich, and a poor man poor.

Is NWBO the one? We all have to decide on our own. Fortunately we have this 1 in 1,000 rich message board community of industry folks who are generous to share their understandings, research, and due diligence.

And if NWBO is the one, it goes back to Sojourner's key point. The professional manipulators out there know that too. They definitely want to steal your shares after TLD. How? Plant the seed into your head of a market cap top, early on, so you schedule the sale of some shares between $3 to $5 after top line data. Because human nature is such that, if you do, selling the rest is a natural next step with some coaxing, and all will be sold by the time it goes to $8. Then Murphy's Law, as everything begins to kick in, including kicking oneself, as the price jumps to $20 and much higher over time. All IMHO, not investment advice.

[kabunushi]

Purely for the sake of argument or possible discussion, let me throw out a contrary interpretation of the last months of action. Without a deep look into the actual composition of XBI, I will assert that XBI is the closest thing to a small to microcap biotech sector benchmark against which we can and should measure NWBO. XBI is down about 45% in the last year and at the current point, NWBO's net result for the year matches almost completely though the curves don't match because NWBO has been much more volatile vs the smoother XBI as we'd expect for a single volatile stock vs a wider index.

I'd assert that fall in XBI reflects in great part a steep deterioration in the availability of financing for these companies hence the strong general negative sentiment. NWBO has always been able to raise cash, the only question is what amount of dilution based on the prevailing stock price when they have to raise. So NWBO longs are not that afraid of the financing risks - which is very reasonable assuming that TLD will be good enough to increase the valuation. But anyway, I think it is important background that traders may be looking at. NWBO has been a lot more volatile than XBI but ultimately ends up tracking it very closely. That can all change in a flash with TLD release and many longs might even not be watching this comparison,

Personally, I wonder if the market and sector doldrums will not prevail in limiting the amplitude of a post-TLD pop to an upside of $3-4 even on clearly good TLD. That's what I'm expecting though I will be delighted if it can run a lot further. Even if it runs higher I'll be not at all surprised if it ends up falling back to $3-4 in the near term. JMHO and pure guesswork on what will happen to the stock in the near term. Nobody should be surprised to see a very steep rise followed by a steep fall back to some level where demand for the stock meets supply following a news-prompted buying frenzy. We've always had short-term problems where those 'in the know' push up the pps then further demand is exhausted relative to the sellers. Just like the move to 2.50 was strong, 2.50 was HOD and I expected more follow-through but the strong run-up was then strongly faded.

All this is JMO, but I believe it will be a strong hold post-TLD for very strong additional buying upon RA approval if nothing in the meantime to drive the stock up but under the circumstances, I find it hard to imagine that the action will suddenly cease to be as volatile or more so than it has been ever since it broke out off the long term doldrum lows.