Replies to post #2029 on ETFs, Leveraged ETFs, Sector Funds

[stiv]

I sure did see it. Added a few more shares on opening weakness. Interesting that KOLD reverse split today. It was announced last week of Dec.

[No-Quarter]

NatGas FYI,

BOIL

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/us-scrambles-input-energy-firms-europe-gas-supply-amid-russia-ukraine-standoff

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-kyiv-embassy-working-091313313.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAp0pYvY_Rp428Z3oCputBdSydHsEn_jMcADMVuULkHZS5rMtK4sHSy6aQmuPnj1GoQwiHiuJLQmHdDwhoUpBpk0zxMyd-fzwmOwicrmmyUyVYmkQSkezwDCQMO44wxnCpmg-OjdTdp2KxeybG1wW3TooUjziiKlIaIIlrY0RxuC

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-01-18/germany-cannot-rule-out-nord-stream-2-as-means-of-pressure-says-foreign-policy-expert

Bullish Temperature Outlook, Record LNG Exports, & Weak Production To Support Natural Gas Prices Above $4.00/MMBTU Into The Spring; Gas Demand Dips Over the Holiday Weekend But Will Spike This Weak As Arctic Air Arrives; First -200 BCF Withdrawal Of The season Possible This Week…And Another Next Week


http://celsiusenergy.co/p/daily-commentary.html

6:00 AM EDT, Tuesday, January 18, 2022
Natural gas recovered from early losses on Friday to finish nearly flat on the session as investors settled on a cautious approach heading into a three-day weekend.

The front-month February 2022 contract settled down less than a penny at $4.26/MMBTU. The early selling pressure was driven largely by indications from the near-term temperature outlook that a late-January pattern shift could bring warmer conditions by the last few days of the month. However, most of the later-term contracts actually saw gains on Friday with the March 2022 contract rising a solid 8 cents or 2% to $4.08/MMBTU. As a result, natural gas futures prices are back above $4.00/MMBTU for the remainder of 2022, as shown in the Figure to the right. This gain was likely driven by LNG exports rising to a new all-time high of 13.2 BCF/day while natural gas production has rather surprisingly struggled to rise above 94 BCF/day, even as freeze-offs seemingly should have faded amidst milder temperatures across Texas and Appalachia. As a result, the temperature-independent supply/demand imbalance has tightened and my projected end-of-season storage minimum has fallen by over 200 BCF since the start of January to 1632 BCF, and could be poised to fall much lower if arctic air verifies and fundamentals remain tight into February. This places the commodity in a good position heading into the Spring, even if temperatures moderate, which likely supported the later-term contracts last month.

Over the long holiday weekend, the near-term temperature outlook generally held steady, as shown in the Figure to the right, with both models showing bitterly cold arctic air arriving this week and lasting for the next 7-10 days before fading towards the end of the month. As a result, both the ECMWF and GFS ENS models are calling for much higher-than-normal accumulated GWDDs over the next 2 weeks. As of Sunday evening, my Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-based average of GFS OP, GFS ENS, and ECWMF ENS data—was calling for a very impressive 581 accumulated GWDDs for January 18-31, the most for the period in the last 5 years, easily topping 2019’s 560 GWDDs.