Replies to Post #365883 onAmarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

Replies to #365883 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

01/09/22 4:22 PM

Capt. Beer,

Very nice presentation.

If your assumptions about Germany are correct then fiscal 2020 and 2021 are very close in magnitude.

Assuming that is true then we can look forward to larger Germany contributions with a bit of icing from Canada. Then, of course, the roll out from other EU markets.

China could be phenomenal once it gets rolling.

This could all bode very well for AMRN.

Thank you for taking the time to compile and present this data along with your projections.

We'll see how well your estimate and actual correlate.

Jvee

01/09/22 4:49 PM

#365886 RE: CaptBeer #365883

Thanks Capt. Your Q2 and Q3 numbers in the first bar chart are wrong.

Pharmacydude

01/09/22 5:08 PM

#365887 RE: CaptBeer #365883

Capt:
Here is a ROUGH GUESS of how I think the finances of Amarin vs generics plays out. I don't fully understand the US system so I may be totally off. Also, I have used rounded estimates and generalizations (eg: insurance = insurance companies, pharmacy benefit managers, anyone else looking for a kickback) and ignored wholesale markups:

Amarin cost/bottle: $30
Net revenue: $145 (I did this before seeing your data saying $135)
Profit: $115/bottle (78% margin from previous quarterly reports)
They sell it to the wholesaler for $300 and pharmacy sells it for $330 (10% profit)
Insurance pays the pharmacy $330 - copay(if copay is $10 then insurance pays pharmacy $320)
Amarin rebates insurance $175 and the insurance company ends up paying $145/month ($320 - $175)

Generics cost/bottle: $50
net revenue: $125/bottle
Profit: $75/bottle (60% Margin IIRC from a quarterly report)
sells to wholesaler for $270 (customer pays $300)- pharmacy makes 10% ($30)
generics give rebate to insurance of $165/bottle
cost to insurance company $125/month
Insurance pays pharmacy $300 minus copay (if $10 then $290)
generics rebate insurance $165
net cost to insurance company is $125

Bottom line: V costs insurance companies $145 and gV costs $125 - so they force their clients to gV to save $20/month/pt

Negotiations with insurance companies for coverage and Tier level is all about how much Amarin is willing to pay in rebates. Insurance company "X" may say they will only cover in Tier 2 if Amarin rebates them $215 to bring their cost to $100. Amarin says no so the company either doesn't cover or puts it on Tier 4 where the higher copay keeps the insurance companies costs under $100/month. The Amarin coupon is Amarin's way of reducing the copay but limits their ability to offer bigger rebates to insurance unless V is Tier 2. If the copay for V is $150/month (ie: the pt is paying the entire net cost of V) it is probably because the insurance company wont pay for the drug and Amarin has agreed to rebate the insurance whatever the insurance has to pay the pharmacy. In this scenario the drug is listed as covered in Tier 4 but the insurance company never pays a dime toward the cost.

If Amarin (JT) had agreed to raise the rebates to insurance in the past then when it came time to negotiate prices in EU they would have been forced to take a lower net EU price for the next 9 years. US insurance companies played hardball, refused to cover a CVD preventative medication and sales have sucked. The payoff is that MK was able to get $200 euro's in EU. Now that EU pricing is starting to get finalized they may be able to increase rebates to US insurance companies to get better coverage.

Ironic part: V has been available in the US for 9 years but CVD pts in Canada and EU will end up getting V before US CVD pts. US insurance companies have TOO MUCH POWER and control over what pts get.

I will repeat what I have said several times before: US insurance lobby paid MRC, Pyr, AF and Steve. Creating doubts about the efficacy of V allowed/justified the insurance companies to refuse to cover V for 3 years now - saved them a FORTUNE!!!!!