Hi tom, the first chart is just an example of what I expect out of a spike and channel pattern like we see on the 1 hour chart. Price tends to find support at the beginning of where the channel started. Looking at the break down of the purple channel.
The first 3 charts are what I see currently that could happen.
After that I will post where I think that price would go in an extreme crash.
As far as a larger crash....
When I go back through the charts and look at the hourly candles and gaps, I do find 2 or 3 grouped together at bottoms of extreme lows which were breakaway gaps. Currently since the last march 2020 low we still have about 26 gaps.
I honestly believe that all but the bottom 2 might eventually get filled.
I still think that the market could hit 5100 next year, and from that point down to gap 2 would be about a 46% drop and gap 1 would be a 50% drop.
As we start to top we are still overdue for a decent 10-15% correction and then a potential bounce off that probably back up to at least test the all time highs. Then I would be expecting a good 20% drop and a bounce that doesn't go past .50 or .618 on the fibs, that's when I would really start to believe that the bigger 50% move down is gonna happen.
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