Replies to post #13873 on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

[rumrunner528]

Zeppo, the way I read Micham's statement, "I think it is highly unlikely that AUPH and a large pharma have struck a deal, but have agreed to delay announcement for some reason" is much different than your interpretation, "You offered an interesting premise that there is no pending acquisition via big pharma."

I may be reading more into it than it deserves, but I like his take on it better.

rum

[micham2012]

Zeppo, I am very interested in all the talk about multiple suitors, not only on this board but in published comments as well. If I had to guess -- and it is just a guess -- I would think that the Company would like to make a decision by November 3rd, and is urging those with interest to get serious, consistent with that timetable. Frankly, it is a scenario that makes sense to me and explains why they are not in a position to say anything. The worst thing they can do is make an inadequate, incomplete, confusing or misleading disclosure -- better to say nothing at all. And multiple suitors makes a simple disclosure difficult.

If it were just BMY, it seems to me that the Company could have dealt with the rumor without saying much of anything. It is a judgment call whether you open yourself to potential liability by remaining silent. You don't need to comment on the negotiations. Just the rumor. In my view, if the rumor is false, and you let people go on making investment decisions based upon it, you have effectively represented by your silence that the rumor is true and that is dangerous. But, if the Company has several suitors, is it possible to say anything accurate about the Bloomberg rumor without leaving something highly significant unsaid?

I continue to feel relatively certain that, if something is signed, the parties to any contract will not waste time making it public. The number of those in the know will have increased exponentially when something definitive is in place, as will the danger of someone trading on inside information.

Above all, I have no idea what the price will be if a deal is struck, and am not qualified to comment. But this is just a message board, after all, so qualifications don't matter. I think that the universe of investors is comfortable with $30 today, which suggests that something in the $40-45 range may be quite feasible. Frankly, if Q3 numbers are good, I suspect the stock could have found its way to $30 or so without any rumor. I remain very optimistic.