Replies to post #1784 on ETFs, Leveraged ETFs, Sector Funds

[No-Quarter]

I am kicking myself this morning...

Bitcoin @ ~ $60,000 this morning...

...and I took a ~ 10% loss in ONE this week before I could get out of it...

Not a good week for me in crypto.

I am watching BOIL closely. The end-of-month contract roll-over could be a huge gain.

http://celsiusenergy.co/p/daily-commentary.html

This Is What A Bull Market Looks Like: Natural Gas Rallies Late On Cooler Near-Term Temperature Outlook Even As Broad Outlook Remains Bearish; EIA Projected To Announce Above-Average +95 BCF Storage Injection Today—But Don’t Be Surprised For The Bulls Shrug Off Bearishness; EIA Also Expected To Announce Bearish Crude Oil Build But Bullish Refined Product Draw In Today’s Delayed Petroleum Status Report

6:00 AM EDT, Thursday, October 14, 2021
This is what a bull market looks like. Natural gas spent much of Wednesday’s trading session in the red but then rallied sharply just before the close to finish near the session’s highs.

The front-month November 2021 contract settled up 9 cents or 1.5% at $5.59/MMBTU. The commodity continued to rise after the 2:30 PM EDT close of floor trading to as high as $5.70/MMBTU such that the 1x ETF UNG closed up +3.7% and the 2x ETF BOIL was up +7.3%.

The abrupt rally was driven by a cooldown in both the 12Z runs of the GFS and ECWMF that resulted in each picking 5-10 GWDDs over the next 14 days, as shown in the Figure to the right. However, my Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-based average of GFS OP, GFS ENS, and ECWMF ENS data—is still only calling for 130 14-day accumulated GWDDs, near 5-year lows for October 14-27 even after the cooldown. If natural gas could see such gains with a still bearish temperature outlook and with the commodity so steeply overvalued on a fundamental basis, can you image the gains if we were to get some serious cold? For the bears, this has to be a sobering thought. The commodity also likely gained a bullish tailwind as European prices once again turned higher. After a weeklong pullback, TTF gained +9.5% and NBP +8.8% to push both price points back above $30/MMBTU as colder-than-normal temperatures have resulted in a daily storage withdrawal and a tiny injection each of the past two sessions as inventories appear to be peaking below 2925 BCF.