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The Danish Dude

10/09/21 10:52 AM

#407992 RE: Fireman02360 #407983

What did Linda Powers and others from NWBO say at an earlier shareholder meeting?

And as we said last year, if we were to get the proverbial 'offer you can't refuse,' we wouldn't refuse. I asked last year and I'll ask all of you right now, at our current stock price, and our current company valuation on the one hand and with what's in the company, would you want us to do a partnering at this stage?" (Response: It depends on the deal. Not a buyout but perhaps a partnership or giving up a certain market.)

(LP) "There are various ways to slice it, one possibility for example is one could do regional partnering deals. That would be quite sensible. No reason that's not possible. One of the great things about our intellectual property and our large patent portfolio, we file them everywhere. Even in far-flung locations. And when we did that we wanted to have something that would be useful in various regional settings. So that kind of thing, I think, is a practical possibility. I'm not making any comment other than to say that it is a practical possibility."

(JJ) "Let me just add to what Linda said, I've done a lot of other mergers and acquisitions myself in other areas, you really don't want to do it unless you are on some ascendancy, you don't want to do it. And I think we are close to that point but we're not there. And you don't want to do it when the stock price is low. Your point's a good point but you have to look at it in the context of evolving further and our stock price rising. On that point, Linda, I just wanted to add to what you and Les just said. As a director, I honestly believe we are in better shape now than we've been for several years. The results that Linda mentioned are really quite unusually good. Secondly, we have now financing which we didn't have before. It's not a small thing, when you're paying a bit at a time. And I think our team has actually strengthened a little bit, particularly on the investment strategy side. I think we're going to be telling our story better in the next three-to-four months. For all of those reasons, I have to say that I am more optimistic about the company than I've been for several years."

(LP) "Let me finish the other point that I wanted to add, in agreement with all of Jerry's points, the tricky thing for us when we think about partnering is that each of our two products is a platform technology. Most of the other companies that you see that do early- or mid-stage-partnering, have a number of discrete products. And they'll partner Product A and keep Product B. For us, it's the same product. Yes, you could do a licensing deal or a partnering deal for a field of use, but in terms of being able to police that and really get the corresponding value, it's pretty tricky when it's not separate products. So that adds to our feeling of making sure we don't do something premature."

(LG) "In addition to the stock price and the timing of what to do, I think that the biggest meanest players, they have 100s of billions of dollars in their revenue stream related to the basics of chemo and radiation. If we take a step back and use conservative words, their effectiveness in terms of the response rate is much worse than ours, they cost a lot more to make if you're looking in the immuno-therapy area, and they're much harder to administer, much more toxic, I mean we're really kinda good in that area, and of the hundreds and hundreds of billions a large chunk is just the money they make from the drugs that ameliorate the effectiveness of the painful stuff. So if you take a step back, they don't mind picking up another, which is the subject of what we said a week ago yesterday, another targeted immune therapy. But we cover all solid-tumor cancers. Potentially. That's what we're working on and that's what they would be buying.



LP has manufactoring in place, soon MHRA’ed, bought Flaskworks and now got MicroDen and EDEN. It can scale.

No way LP would sell at $12-15.

They have signaled they are ready to go alone and will Merck and BMY play hardball with the checkbook?

Former CEO and new CEO for Merck clearly signaled they were and are ready to pay “cherry on top”. That bidding wars occurs.

Can Merck afford to play “hard to get” if BMY say “thank you, then we’ll step in instead”.

This deal will never go below $20 a share.
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CherryTree1

10/10/21 9:03 AM

#408122 RE: Fireman02360 #407983

we already have estimates of revenue.
From the get-go we know projected capacity is about 450 - 500 patients per year in Swaston and estimates of the cost of the treatment $150k - $200k.
You do the math . . . that is annual revenue of at least $67,500,000 right out of the shoot with Swaston alone and only for L.
New cases of GBM are about 3 per 100,000 annually so we are looking at probably around 6000 or so new cases across US & Europe.
If NWBO with Flaskworks and other manufacturing facilities can ramp up to support that number we are talking about close to $1 billion in revenue . . . and that is just DCVAX-L.
The revenue potential associated with DCVAX-Direct will be like at least 100X greater IMHO. It can be used with all solid tumor cancers.

oncology drugs reached $145.4 billion in sales in 2019, almost triple that of the next item on the list, drugs treating diabetes with $51 billion dollars in sales. By 2026, cancer drug sales are expected to more than double their sales to $311.2 billion.


https://www.statista.com/chart/18311/sales-revenues-of-drug-classes/


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hope4patients

10/10/21 1:53 PM

#408157 RE: Fireman02360 #407983

Some back of the napkin math:

5K patients/yr at a total treatment cost of $175K gets you to $13.82/share if you use 950Million shares outstanding and a revenue multiple of 15 (pretty standard).

At 10K patients/yr the value would be $27.63/share.

Outstanding shares will likely be slightly higher after TLD so you can make that adjustment but price for treatment will likely be higher than $175k as well. I believe compassionate use patients are paying about $200K.

The ability to meet demand will be the only factor limiting share price imho.