Replies to post #354872 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Monk44]

This article seems to focus on anti-virals vs therapeutics.
Obviously V would be the later. No mention of RLF100/Aviptadil either, which has huge potential and is close [many speculate] to EUA

[Meowza]

Is the omission typical of an incomplete hot-take? Or more sleight of hand, like the pre-2021 analyst valuations that completely ignored an EU market now suddenly valued in the billions?

[Whalatane]

Thx for the Barrons article
From a quick look ....AT-527 shows the viral load decreasing in both the placebo and active arm ..over time . Its decreasing in the active ( drug ) arm faster but IMHO not dramatically . So its faster recovery time in those that are recovering anyway ...from the data I quickly looked at .
What we're interested in is decreased need for hospitalization in those most likely to need hospitalization ...ie older with co morbidities like heart disease .

The inclusion data for one on the Molnupiravir trials require males to abstain from sex ( or wear protection ) for 90 days which indicates there may be a signal for birth defects some where in the data . Its an unusual inclusion criteria .
Again ...from a quick look .

As Raf is continually reminding us .....most young people who get Covid do not need hospitalization and recover . Some may develop long Covid , and the young unvaccinated may pass Covid on to those older and of higher risk... but thats another discussion .
Those that are currently overwhelming the hospitals in Idaho and parts of other states are mostly unvaccinated , older with co morbidity's . Thats where the acute need is ...reducing the rate of hospitalization and death .

If Vascepa helps in that ...reducing hospitalization and death in the most high risk group ( older etc ) ..its an existing approved drug that is already in pharmacies that can easily be dispensed .
MITIGATE will tell us if V works or not for this group

Kiwi

[north40000]

Evidence of lack of effectiveness of GILD’s remdesivir appears in a European study reported by Endpoint news yesterday morning, 9/17. I posted most of the text on the GILD board earlier today, 9/18.

[alwayswatching1]

Only BIG PHARMA gets to play in that arena.

[Whalatane]

Thx again for this note
An interesting consequence of limiting Covid booster shots to those over 65 ( maybe lowered to those over 60 ) is the increased need for oral drugs to shorten the recovery time for those under 65 who get Covid ......especially those with break thru infections ,unlikely to be hospitalized but feel terrible anyway.

Initially I wasn't that impressed with the AVIR data mentioned in your post but after some DD today I've changed my mind especially considering the 2 day point into the trial data available so far.

AT527 does lower the viral load and shorten recovery time ...in the data so far .

The question thats relevant to AMRN ...is wether we will get that level of detail from P-IT 2
In PT-2 the outcome measures are hard data recordings ( which is what we need ) ie was there less death in the V arm , less hospitalization , alive and out of the hospital at 28 days etc

The inclusion criteria specifies ...without clear indication for hospitalization

So if most of these patients recover without being hospitalized .....are those on V recovering faster than those on placebo .
Is there any measurement of viral load for those that get Covid ...in the V arm vs placebo ..as viral load correlates to outcome .
Anyone know ?

If those under 65 aren't getting booster shots then there will be a need for a reasonably priced oral drug to shorten recovery time for at least the vaccinated that are unlikely to be hospitalized anyway

Kiwi
PS. quick note on China . China has been building ghost cities for years and these developers have been endlessly increasing their unsustainable debt loads. Some of these Co's will now disappear and with it the need some of the raw materials China has been importing to sustain this building boom . Chinese Govt is expected to contain the fallout ....but we see may reduced growth in Chinese economic activity at least short term.