i think you're right that it'll come but i'm not convinced it'll be q3. If i'm right that deferred revenue is growing because of STP orders (3.5m for STP4 in Q2'21 + 1.5m for STP3 in Q4'20 + 0.5m in Q4'19) then it stands to reason that Army is not paying IVAS bills until, possibly, after the prototype phase is finished.
I think this phase should be complete after the Aug/Sept event and they get the "production" green light, but with everything happening so close to quarter end, it's hard to really make a confident guess. One could argue that it'll take more than a week or two to get a green light and therefore maybe the decision won't be made until Q4. On the other hand, budget for FY21 probably can't be spent in Q4 (federal FY22) and therefore maybe payments are made in Q3. Then you have to think about when VirTra would get paid as they are a subcontractor and not receiving funds directly from the the Army.
If revs aren't 6m+ in Q3, here are the numbers I'll be tracking to ensure we're still on track for a record Q4:
* Deferred Revenue - Short Term
* Inventory
* Machinery and equipment
* Accounts Receivable
* Headcount