Replies to post #398799 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Sojourner55]

Hank, I'd like to make the distinction here between investing (by definition is longer term and has a time frame of years) vs trading which could be anywhere from minutes to a few weeks. Fundamentalists analyze the heck out of the company and that ( the thesis) if they have done their homework and invest accordingly they will be rewarded at some time in the future. They have no way of knowing so if their prediction will come true. I'm not saying that doing high quality research will not pay off, just that you have a better probability. There are many companies with "great fundamentals" that have failed.

The same goes with trading, no one can predict the future "accurately". I can jump into any stock that I know nothing about and trade the heck out of it because my chart patterns indicate a high probability of success in the next hour or days. The shorter the time frame the more accurate the predictions, i.e inversely correlated to time.

This is not to be confused with "trends" . Charts are a great way to track and follow trends and a visual way to "project" trends. Until the trend changes, you can ride it for weeks, months or years if you are lucky not to be faked out by sudden moves. So charts provide some kind of "prediction" but no one knows when the trend might change.

So let's take NWBO as an example, many here are deeply convinced of success based one the understanding of the science behind it ( fundamental analysis). They hold the stock through hell and high water convinced that pay off will come in the future; holding all the way from 12 to 0.14 and to $x after TLD , moaning and groaning all the way.

On the other hand, many here trade actively using charts to buy and sell along the way and accumulated more shares or de-risked with trading profits. They have been able to do this because charts can help predict quite accurately the short term price movements.

Not to say that one method is superior to the other but that it should fit into one's personality. Perhaps I should have added the word "accurately" to "albeit short term".

So in short, probability of accurate predictions are inversely correlated with time for a trader. This is my personal experience.