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NY Crude Oil Futures (CL) - Turning BACK DOWN »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 4, 2021

NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6929 and is trading up about 42% for the year from last year's settlement of 4852. This price action here in September is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2021. We have elected one Bullish Reversal to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 6831 and overhead resistance forming above at 6934. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of August 23rd at 6174, which was down 7 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 5th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of August 23rd, which has been a move of .1284%.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2019 while the last low formed on 2020. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2020 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.

Critical support still underlies this market at 5750 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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