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09/12/21 10:43 AM
NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6972 and is trading up about 43% for the year from last year's settlement of 4852. This price action here in September is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2021. Prominently, we have elected one Bullish Reversal to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 6948 and overhead resistance forming above at 7061. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of August 23rd at 6174, which was down 7 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 5th. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 4.319% in a stark panic type decline.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of August 30th reaching 7061 failed to exceed the previous high of 7423 made back during the week of July 26th. That rally amounted to only one week. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. This market did close over the previous week's high indicating some cintinued technical strength.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2019 while the last low formed on 2020. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2020 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5750 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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