Replies to post #23358 on Cycle Trading

[Duma]

This has not been an especially good year for cycle investing, because ..... there have been no cycles. The market has just been banging out a steady move upward. But that will change, so I will change nothing that I am doing.

Here are my numbers YTD:

 
        M3/5   Index 
 SPY   14.4%   20.4% 
 QQQ   19.6%   19.2% 
       34.0%

So my game plan is to use my M3/5 daily chart to exit the market during periods of weakness. Most times that weakness is temporary, but it sure wasn't in Mar 2020. So by exiting during weak periods, it allows me to be more aggressive and invest at 200% (or even higher). So doing that, the plan (100% SPY, 100% QQQ) is up 34% ytd. Now that is not a bad ytd.

[Duma]

Your guy is starting to worry me.

During the recent 59 day up-trend (5/26-8/18), QQQ rose 8.4%, SPY rose 4.8% and DIA rose 2% but TQQQ rose 26.3%, beating 90% of the Nasdaq100 stocks and 95% of S&P500 stocks. That is why when a new QQQ short term up-trend begins I slowly accumulate TQQQ. By the way, TNA declined -13.3%.

He touts how QQQ rose 8.4%, but that TQQQ was up a miraculous 26.3%. It would appear he does not know that TQQQ is 3x QQQ and that buying TQQQ he is leveraging by 3x. He spoke as if TQQQ was an entirely different etf from QQQ that just had really good gains. He specifically said he was "accumulating TQQQ because it was beating 90% of the NASDAQ stocks." What an idiotic statement to make.

And by the way, slowing accumulating I don't think is the way to go. Go all in near the bottom and play the stops that are close.

My charts are all I need, I will no longer read him.